A plot has been in circulation for some time from John Christy. It is a version of one that he showed at a US Senate hearing, and is discussed here.
I don't know if it was ever accurate, but it ends in 2013, so obviously needs updating. It's also woth showing the other surface datasets, and definitely not showing the troposphere record, which I don't think is honest. The CMIP data is for surface, not troposphere.
So I have made my own version, using CMIP 5 data from KNMI. I have used their averages for the RCP groups, and their collection of 106 model runs (one per model/RCP), which is shown in the background. The complete data and R code for the plot are in a zipfile here.
It's a very different picture. The observations, as expected, are far more volatile than the multi-model means, and the slope is somewhat less, but is far from out of range. And of course, recent warming actually takes observations above the mean. I have set the anomaly base for all curves to 1981-2010, the WMO recommendation.
Waterfalls in Antarctica
2 hours ago