Even so, NOAA, again like most surface indices, was still the hottest July in the record, and indeed, at least 12 of the most recent months were the hottest anomaly to date. So the chances of a record 2016 are high, and as I have previously done, I want to show graphically how the rest of the year must fare to make that happen. In the past, I have sought to present the progress to the end year average as a race. But I think more information is conveyed by the type of graph that Sou makes for GISS. This shows the progress during the year of the average to date, compared with other warm years. It has a characteristic that the initial warmth may tail off toward the end, which makes 2016 a little hard to predict. I've supplemented it with extrapolation (faint) assuming that the rest of the year continues as warm as the most recent month. I have made plots for the same set as in the regularly updated plots of comparison of 2016 with 1998. So here it is, you can use the arrows at the top to cycle between plots:
For the meaning of the headings, see the glossary here. All the surface measures, land/ocean, land and SST, are clearly projecting a record if the most recent month temperatures are maintained, with a good deal in reserve. The two lower troposphere indices are projecting a record (ahead of 1998), by a very small margin. There was an end year dip in 1998; if this happens in 2016, it may fall just short of 1998.
Housekeeping - where to note data glitches.On another subject, while I was away recently, some of the regular data streams failed (for which Walter Dnes helped out, thnaks). This may sometimes happen at other times too, and so there is a question of where is best to comment on this. I have reinstated the comment facility on each of the data pages, and I think this is the most natural place; the comments will appear in the "latest comments" list. I have also amended the title of the top listed page to "Notes, and an index...". The idea is that if you want to note something that is not part of a thread or existing page, this could be the place.
A downside here is that comments make pages slower to load. A few short comments won't matter, but it is conceivable that after a long time, I may have to prune the list. If so, I'll try to remove only old comments (on pages) that were relevant to a specific time.