Sunday, January 4, 2015

Prospects for surface temperatures 2014 final

The NCEP/NCAR daily data is in now for December 2014 (here). It was an up and down month - cold start, then very warm leading up to Christmas, then cooling again. The end average was 0.212°C, which makes it a little cooler than August, but a lot warmer than November.

So it is a weakly warming influence on the cumulative sum I am tracking. I'll show below the latest plots of the various indices, in the style of this post and its predecessors; the only update is really HADCRUT. That sum dropped in November, and will be very very close to 2010. NOAA and HADSST3 are well clear, and will be a record. GISS has a fair margin, and should clear.

I'll post in a day or two on the update to TempLS mesh, which should be a better guide to the prospects for GISS.

Update: My TempLS system decides when it can run, based mainly on arrival of ERSST data. It has, and a report is here. Still a lot of land data missing, so I won't post on it for a while. I mention it here because contra NCEP/NCAR, it showed a huge rise in temperature. 0.16°C. That will change, but not greatly, I think. Warmth right across Eurasia, and even N America.
Update: On looking further, this may be an artefact from too little high latitude NH data. ERSST hasn't risen much.
The index will be a record if it ends the year above the axis. Months warmer than the 2010 average make the line head upwards.

Use the buttons to click through.





5 comments:

  1. ENSO ONI posted today at 0.7.

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    1. http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CPC_ONI_OND_2014.jpg

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    2. WHT, the ascension to a warmest year has been interesting. Looks like enough to lift GISS over the line.

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  2. HadSST3 is really quite interesting.

    The other results seem to me to be within expected levels of natural variability.

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    1. Carrick,
      Yes. But remember, these are essentially detrended with the 2010 tmean. The previous max of SST3 was 1998 (just a little higher). Using that would pull the slope down a bit.

      Still, you're right. It is SST that is driving the process.

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